Chris Dudding let us use his best of 2009 list a couple of days back and then posted a summary of predictions for 2010. He was kind enough to let us borrow his good work once again.
After yesterday’s best of 2009, I had a look at what analysts predict will be big in 2010:
1. 2010 will be the year of operating system wars according to Mark Anderson of The Strategic News Service.
2. Lightspeed Venture Partners predict that Nokia or RIM will buy Palm.
3. Business Anywhere Blog thinks 2010 is the year of Android.
4. The compilation of analyst predictions on Technobabble 2.0 is the most comprehensive set I found.
5. IDC predicts a shift towards mobile platforms and Apple to launch a “iPad” tablet device (PDF report).
6. ComputerworldUK tips app stores and Android in Seven smartphone predictions for 2010
7. Dean Bubley’s Disruptive Wireless blog post on “Mobile Winners and Losers” cheers iPhone, Android and Augmented reality but doesn’t expect Near Field Communication (NFC) to take off.
8. IntoMobile thinks we won’t see any “flagship” devices in 2010 and Apple will introduce NFC support into the next iPhone.
9. 3g.co.uk predicts “A Device OS Bites the Dust” in 2010 Telecom Predictions.
10. Wireless Week asked industry leaders for their thoughts on what 2010 will bring. Mary McDowell of Nokia predicts “smartphones for more people”.
The idea of Nokia or RIM buying Palm or that Android will ship more in-device units than Symbian (as said in the SNS article) leaves me wondering what some of these analysts are smoking and wondering where I can get some…
That said 2010 really will be the start (no-where near the end) of the consolidation of OSs in the mobile space. However, it’s a far from simple thing to predict who will come out on top. It’s not just having a great device and a slick UI but also who has far reaching sales into the newly opening markets.
If Nokia and the other Symbian OEMs really push Qt when it comes out and a really decent development environment is finally available by year’s end then Symbian OS starts a better chance than most of coming through.
Oh – and not a single mention in any of those articles that I saw of Maemo yet it’s the most talked about mobile OS currently in the tech discussion sites – go figure…
In terms of mobile OS’es going the way of the Dodo anytime soon, the only candidate I can see is Windows Mobile. We can sit here all day and argue about technical merits of platforms, but the fact remains that it’s the only closed platform developed by a company that is not a handset manufacturer. It’s still being used by HTC and Samsung, but I think HTC placing all of their faith in Android is not an unlikely proposition. I think it’s only hope may be the failure of Bada – but for all the derision thrown it’s way, if Samsung have faith in it then it will do well.
To summarise:
iPhone OS – Not going anywhere. There’s no chance that Apple would ever even consider ‘outsider’ software.
Symbian – The only question is the max price point. Suggesting that we’ll disappear is ludicrous and a bit sad.
Maemo – This is a wait and see for me. Obviously the feedback from the tech community has been great, but some time is needed to see how it goes. Nokia obviously has plans for it though, so it’s not going anywhere in the short-term.
Blackberry OS – Same as iPhone OS.
Android – Clearly on it’s way up. It’s too young to fail in the next year regardless of anything that happens.
Windows Phone (stupid name) – If HTC and/or Samsung ramp down their use of this then I only see one way of saving it – MS go into devices. Strangely, hardware is actually something they seem to do well. They make nice peripherals and X-Box is practically keeping them alive (let’s not mention Zune).
WebOS – While Palm are around this will be too.
Bada – Like Maemo for the middle tier, in that it’s unproven but has a strong backer.
Lastly, I just find the Nokia-Palm rumours soooo ludicrous. The analysts say that Palm ‘has the software’ that would help Nokia suceed in the US market. They almost never acknowledge that software can change, and pretty quickly if the effort is put in. The only thing that I can see that Palm have that would help Nokia in the US is brand recognition – and you must be crazy if you think Nokia are going to sacrifice their brand for the US market. It’s a case of the US analysts overestimating the importance of that market AGAIN.
US analysts overestimate the importance of that market – and who would want a declining brand when you already have a strong one? Still I see a challenge in rebranding the emerging elements of Nokia – three OS and a service brand in Ovi. They need communicating to the US market but also to people like me who are not so knowledgeable about the product range – and does “connecting people” communicate the full range and power of the brand at this stage? I think Nokia does so much more.
Some predictions are really “interesting”.
I think, that Android will grow strong in the next year, but the OS needs to much ressources for small and cheap devices. I mean look at all those manufacturers -> Samsung, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, LG, HTC, Acer. If only Symbian has a manufacturer-list like this……
Symbian (Series 60) will grow into the Series 40 space – Nokia let the Series 40 devices slip more and more in the really lowest end devices. So there is eough space to grow. Look at the nice price points of Series 60 devices -> unmatched.
Iphone and RIM will lose a bit – the american market isn’t growing – the momentum is in other markets but RIM and Apple are quite bound to the american market.
Maemo will be a device which will cover a lot of attention by journalists and bloggers but it won’t be a game changing device, no big plus in revenues or something like that. It will help Nokia gain attention and will strengthen the Nokia brand. Future comparisons will be between Iphone and the N900 and this will help the Symbian devices because they will be compared against lower priced products – against feature phones.
I have one really nice “prediction”
At the moment Intel is working on Lincroft & Moorestown. A x86-CPU with GPU and Memory-Controller on one die. In addition to that there is a Power Management IC which will help lower the power consumption. Windows XP isn’t running on the Moorestown-Platform because it has a very special BIOS for all those Power Management functions. I think that Windwos Mobile is a “little bit dead”. But Microsoft is working on a Windows XP/Windows 7 Version for all power management features of the Lincroft Platform. 2010 could be the year of “Windows XP on Smartphones”. Look at this devices:
http://www.dynamism.com/#Product=viliv
http://www.oqo.com/products/model2+/gallery.html
It is not far away.
The manufacturer list that Android boasts is really something to envy, as you say. There are some interesting reasons why this might be. I have read that Google offer a share of the AdSense revenue to those manufacturers willing to use ‘vanilla’ Android as it were. There may also be an element of association involved. The ODM’s mentioned want to be associated with Google. One thing worth pointing out is that apart from HTC, all of those manufacturers fall into the ‘others’ category of the smartphone sales figures charts, representing only about 5 million devices last quarter. So even if these ODM’s maintain their marketshare and sell only Android phones (so leave out the Windows ones and the few Symbian devices that SEMC sell) then that plus HTC’s 2 million would still only be just over a third of the 19 million Symbian devices sold.
I think it’s accepted now that Symbian is going to be pushing Series 40 down – you just need to look at Nokia’s own slides from their Capital Markets day. The S40 slice of the pie chart is shrinking and the Symbian one is growing (and of course there is also a new Maemo slice). Just how low (and how high)? That will be interesting to see, and this is the question that commentors should really be speculating on – rather than the ‘death’ of Symbian.
Your last bit of information is very interesting. It could well take something drastic like this to pull Microsoft out of the mire in the smartphone market. One key difference between Microsoft, Google, Apple, RIM and Nokia though is that Microsoft don’t seem to treat WinMo as a ’service platform’ like the others do. They sell Windows Mobile as a product in itself (am I wrong about this – do MS have a service strategy in mobile. I haven’t seen it). A big mistake if you ask me.
One of the problem areas for Android-ODMs is who gets the brand kudos? I know there are deeper issues – but I think this is an interesting one from ONE point of view. How you make information and corporate or product identity work online.
When the HTC 1 was launched Google/Android got substantially more press than HTC did – in fact HTC underperformed significantly. I guess you could say “we’ll ride on Google’s coattails with this one”, but in reality HTC needed more profile than it got – routine trade release for the OHA got more online press than the HTC G1 launch day did. People (the press and influencers) associate the device with the OS and with Google, and it is the OS/Google trajectory that matters, not that of the device.