Riding the transition, urgently

Retweet Share on Facebook

Jason Whitmire, General Manager of Wind River’s mobile business, devoted more than 1,300 words in the official Wind River blog yesterday to Symbian.

Entitled “Open Source Symbian and the Inescapable Truth of Product Lifecycles“, his piece contains a lot of insight about the difficulties of open source projects, and also about potential drawbacks of legacy architectures.  There’s some imaginative writing in the article.  Indeed, I would say there’s too much imagination – and the conclusions are by no means “inescapable”.

Jason’s basic thesis is that Symbian has had its day, and that the Symbian platform isn’t capable of addressing the challenges of next generation mobile devices and mobile services.  More interestingly, he argues that open source, far from helping Symbian, will actually hasten our downfall.  Specifically, he argues

that its demise as it nears an end to a natural product lifecycle will only be accelerated when it is made available under an open source license next year.

Jason structures his argument around seven observations.  I’ll follow the same structure.  In each case, I draw a different conclusion to Jason.

(1) Shifting of costs to device makers (WRONG)

A recent tour of OxMs in Japan pointed to the possibility that, although Symbian will not charge royalties per unit, development, support, upgrade, and maintenance costs in the Symbian program will likely be shifted to each respective manufacturer as the Symbian Foundation finds that funding a staff of hundreds of Symbian engineers is unlikely to be offset by membership fees.

Yes, open source projects need to consider the costs of development (integration), support, upgrade, and maintenance – over and above costs of licensing.  That’s a good point.  Users of platform software need to weigh up the total secondary costs of working with a platform, as well as the licence fee.  The former can often be larger than the latter.

However, let’s be clear: it has never been the plan that the Symbian Foundation will have a staff of “hundreds of Symbian engineers” who work on customer integration, support, upgrade, and maintenance – funded by membership fees.  There’s been no plan for that working model, since that working model is not required:

  • Package owners for each of the different areas of functionality are committed to both upgrade and maintenance;
  • These package owners are spread throughout the community of member companies: they’re not Symbian Foundation employees.  In the initial phase of the Symbian Foundation, the substantial majority of these packages are owned within Nokia (including by engineers from the former Symbian Ltd, that was acquired by Nokia), but these will become spread through the community in the months and years ahead;
  • Assistance with customer integration and support will be available to OxMs in the same way as before – via a rich ecosystem of professional services companies (some are listed here).

The more interesting observation in this part of Jason’s article is this:

Indeed, by all indications an Open Source Symbian will require considerably more sweat equity and costly out-sourcing by OxMs to keep the platform viable in the face of accelerated competition and technology change.

Part of this is sheer imagination.  There is no indication that the Symbian platform will fail to keep up with accelerated competition and technology change.

However, it is true that there is one temporary drawback to Symbian’s transition from closed source to open source.  As explained on the “Platform Completeness” page of the Symbian Developer website:

Symbian is going to be completely open source…  However, some technologies which were historically included in Symbian OS / S60 platform releases were distributed under specific commercial licenses and hence could not be included in the initial Symbian Foundation codebase. Essentially Nokia have contributed everything they can to the Symbian Foundation but some technologies are licensed from other companies and hence can’t be included in the platform until discussions with those companies have been completed.

Many of these items have since been resolved and solutions are now present in platform releases. The rest continue to be a focus of activity for Symbian staff and companies in the community – this is a key part of the completeness story. The issues we are trying to resolve are mainly Third Party IP (TPIP) issues

In concrete terms – as has already been communicated when we announced our Release Plan:

Symbian^2 is the first release for which the source code is available on the Mercurial repositories on the Symbian developer website…

Device manufacturers who are relatively new to the Symbian world are expected to use Symbian^3 in their first commercial shipments…

Symbian^3 will be part of a complete ecosystem offering of all the software needed to quickly create a wide range of winning mobile devices – including state-of-the-app mobile phones, and lots more.

That is, for some manufacturers, the secondary costs of working with Symbian^2 may exceed those of working with previous (closed source) versions of the Symbian platform.  But by Symbian^3, these secondary costs should be substantially reduced.  More information on progress with the completeness of the Symbian platform is available via our developer website.

(2) Developers are flocking elsewhere (MISLEADING)

Although the best of its generation, developers still generally consider Symbian an inherently buggy software…

I’ll be interested in quantitative data in the comparative “bugginess” of different software platforms.  Here’s one point I can share: the release of Symbian OS that was made to device manufacturers and development partners, by Symbian Ltd, towards the end of last year – Symbian OS v9.5 – broke all internal records in terms of low defect count, keeping the agreed release schedule, and delivering the agreed release scope.

developers are choosing other open source platforms three times as often

The link is to some data about the numbers of open source projects arising from different mobile platforms.  Since the period covered is 2008, it’s not surprising that Symbian fares comparatively poorly.  The interesting data won’t emerge till later.  The corresponding statistics for 2010 will be telling.

(3) No signs of a future proof architecture (NO EVIDENCE)

If we move beyond smartphones, Symbian simply is not architected for next generation larger screen mobile devices and runs neither easier nor more cheaply

This is sheer conjecture.  I conjecture differently: the step-by-step re-architecting of Symbian that has taken place over the years (such as the Screenplay and Freeway architectures, and the support for SMP) means it should make a great job of running new types of devices.

To make matters more complicated, Symbian will attempt combine MOAP, S60 and UIQ to create an all-in-one platform…

This part of the challenge has already been met.  The Symbian platform has its APIs based squarely on S60, though aspects of the other UI systems are also present.

Bridging the gap between Symbian today and Symbian tomorrow will require the kind of careful architectural planning that is rare in a new open source consortium

I agree that rare skills are required.  But there are some very fine architects who have been overseeing this process – both inside Nokia and in the Symbian Architecture Council.  Again I mention: a lot of the planning and development has already taken place.

(4) Symbian is on a decreasing volume precipice (DEBATABLE)

In addition to reporting a 12% year-on-year decrease in volumes in the quarter the Symbian Foundation was established, Symbian now shows a whopping 15 percentage points of lost market share versus other high-end OSs.

A temporary decline in sales could be a prelude to many different outcomes.  Yes, if you’re inclined to see it that way, it could be imagined as the start of a precipice.  But it could also be seen as a sign of transition.  In the period of time that our new engine of innovation is being put in place, we’re not unduly alarmed by current market figures.

Here’s a possible analogy – sales of Palm-powered handsets declined for a while.  But now that Palm has come out with a new software platform, we can expect a change in fortune.  I believe it may well be the same pattern for Symbian.  The real question is: how good will the new Symbian innovation engine be?

I believe the highly competitive market will make it more difficult for [Nokia] to indefinitely [support] the Symbian Foundation for other manufacturing players who will have access to source code under a zero royalty license

Nokia has made its intentions clear with regard to supporting the Symbian Foundation: they expect that, by opening the platform and making it free of charge, it will attract many contributors as well as many adopters.  This will provide business units inside Nokia with a wealth of choice for software to add into their devices.

(5) Barriers to Symbian roadmap assurance for all members (DEBATABLE)

it remains to be seen if the Symbian Foundation platform will offer a roadmap that allows for continued feature convergence, service delivery, innovation, and differentiation…

What will help this to be “seen”, one way or the other, is the happy fact that the Symbian Developer website increasingly contains more information about future platform releases.

Indeed, the cost of keeping a stack and platform current with ever-changing technology standards is immense, and it is unclear who will invest in this process in the Open Source Symbian platform.

Again, this information will be published in advance on our website, for the whole world to review and debate.  For example, here’s the root page for our Feature and Roadmap Council.

(6) How long will Helsinki hang on to Symbian? (MISLEADING)

Rumors that Qt technology from the Trolltech acquisition is being architected in as part of a post-Symbian new platform generation

Er, this is hardly a “rumour”.  The adoption of Qt technology is something that’s the subject of open discussion on the Symbian Council forums.  But it’s not a “post-Symbian new platform generation” – it’s part of an evolution of the user interface layer.

For further discussion on this point, see my earlier posting, “Insurance misunderstood“.

(7) The devil in the Symbian Foundation governance details (OPEN QUESTION)

Finally, there remain a thicket of open questions around the operation of the Symbian Foundation and open source, not the least of which is what the exact support burden manufacturers will need to take on in both creating new designs and supporting legacy platforms using Symbian.

Agreed, there are lots of important open questions about the best operations of mobile open source foundations – whether the foundation in question is LiMo, the OHA, the Symbian Foundation, or any other.  Anyone who claims to know all the answers is probably a bit naive.

However, at Symbian, we take very seriously the value of getting the governance right – encouraging and accepting input from as wide a range of participants as possible.  We’ll keep publishing our latest best ideas on how this should work.  We’re open to suggestions for anything that should be changed!

Incidentally, one thing that is clear is that support for “legacy platforms” (prior to Symbian^2) will be handled by Nokia (as the owner of Symbian Ltd).  Support for versions from Symbian^2 onwards will be organised via the Symbian Foundation (in which Nokia is but one of several board members).  As I mentioned earlier, companies who commit packages of software into the Symbian Foundation are expected to be responsible for the maintenance of these packages, subject to overall rules agreed by the Symbian Release Council.

Conclusion: a sense of urgency

Even though I’ve taken issue with some of the analysis from Jason Whitmire, I want to avoid any impression of complacency. I notice that some comments to the recent article by blogger Matt Asay (in which Matt said that I gave the appearance of being “calm”) suggest that:

Mr. Wood is doing a good impression of Nero, fiddling while Rome burns … perhaps Mr. Wood and his colleages are too relaxed

Being calm is one thing.  Being complacent is another.  My view, as it happens, is that there is no time to lose.  The mobile marketplace is highly competitive and highly complex.  Even though some parts of the Symbian schedule are already mapped out and are most unlikely to change (such as the release dates and principal contents for Symbian^2 and Symbian^3), the Symbian community needs to double down to be sure to accomplish our essential priorities as quickly as possible.

So I’ll end by echoing some words from the fine book “A sense of urgency” by Harvard Business School Professor John Kotter. The biggest reason why significant change initiatives fail, in Kotter’s considered view, is because of a lack of:

a real sense of urgency – a distinctive attitude and gut-level feeling that lead people to grab opportunities and avoid hazards, to make something important happen today, and constantly shed low-priority activities to move faster and smarter, now.

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 2:17 pm

Last updated: February 8, 2010 at 4:33 pm

Categories: Dialogue, Mobile business

Tags: ,, ,

Short Link: http://wp.me/pqgpU-kA